2026 Housing Forecast for Portland & Vancouver: Affordability Finally Improving?

Expert Forecasts Point to Affordability Improving in the PNW for 2026

Wondering what to expect from the Portland and Vancouver housing market in 2026? You aren't the only one.

For the past few years, affordability has been the biggest barrier standing between most Pacific Northwest residents and their next move. Buyers in Beaverton, Camas, and Gresham have been holding their breath, waiting for things to get better.

The good news? It’s finally happening.

In late 2025, we saw affordability hit its best point in three years. Experts agree that momentum will continue into 2026. This isn't just optimism; it's based on hard analysis of the three key factors shaping our local market: mortgage rates, inventory, and home prices.

1. Lower Mortgage Rates Are Already Here

Mortgage rates have already come down from their peaks. By some counts, they dropped by almost a full percentage point over the last year. That is a massive deal for your monthly payment.

But how low will they go? Should you wait? Forecasts suggest rates will likely hover in the low-to-mid 6% range throughout 2026. Some optimistic models even see us dipping into the high 5s if the economy cools further.

• For Buyers: A lower rate increases your buying power in neighborhoods like Hillsboro or Ridgefield where prices have been sticky. It helps you qualify for homes that felt just out of reach last year.

• For Sellers: It’s time to accept that rates in the 6s are the "new normal." The lock-in effect is easing, meaning more of your neighbors are finally deciding to list their homes.

2. Even More Options Are on the Way (Especially in the Suburbs)

In 2025, the number of homes for sale in the Portland metro improved by about 15%. As inventory rose, buyers regained things they hadn’t had in years: options, time, and leverage.

While inventory gains this year might not be quite as steep, experts at Realtor.com predict supply will grow by another 8.9% this year.

Locally, we are seeing this most in areas like Vancouver, WA and Washington County, OR, where new construction is helping boost supply.

• For Buyers: This means you might not have to waive inspections or pay $50k over asking anymore. You can actually negotiate.
• For Sellers: Pricing your house right is critical. You are no longer the only game in town.

3. Home Price Growth Is Slowing to a Sustainable Pace

With more homes for sale, the frantic upward pressure on prices has cooled.

Nationally, experts predict prices will rise by a modest 1.6% to 2.5% in 2026.

But here is the local reality: Real estate is hyper-local. In Portland, we are seeing prices stabilize and return to normal historical growth (3-4%). In Vancouver, prices remain steady due to the tax advantages of living in Washington.

• For Buyers: Expect moderate growth, not the 15% spikes of the pandemic years. This gives you predictability for your budget.
• For Sellers: This slower growth protects your equity without pricing buyers out. It restores balance to the market.

4. More Homes Will Sell in 2026

All of this adds up to a better affordability equation.

As Mischa Fisher, Chief Economist at Zillow, says:

“Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and improved affordability, while sellers are seeing price stability and more consistent demand. Each group should have a bit more breathing room in 2026.”

The bottom line is that more people in the PNW are finally going to be able to make their move this year. The market is giving you an opportunity you haven’t had in a while.

Bottom Line

Affordability won't change overnight, but the trends are undeniably moving in the right direction.

In 2026, we expect a market with more balance, more predictability, and more breathing room than we’ve seen in years.

Want to know what this means for your specific zip code? Let’s chat. The opportunities unlocking in Lake Oswego look different than the ones in Hazel Dell. You need a local strategy.

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